The level of 5,000 trans kids registered with GIDS has been claimed ‘an explosion’ but the true numbers reveal the complete opposite.
When I was at school, I knew just the one friend, Mark, who came out to me as being gay, but he was the only one I was aware of even though there were about 180 boys in our year. Given the recognition from current national statistic that 3.3% of our population are gay, lesbian or bisexual, the fact I only knew 1 out of 180 were gay meant that I believed that only 0.5% were gay – so the figure was clearly well below the true level.
That was some 45 years ago, so it was hardly surprising I was not aware of any other gay school kids as society at that time was still incredibly hostile and unaccepting. Had this been today, and assuming everyone in the year were open to declaring their sexuality, the expected number of out gay kids at school would have been more like 6, which of course represents a 600% increase on the number I was aware of – now some might claim that a 600% increase means there’s been an explosion of gay kids! But the reality is that if the number had been 6, it would simply be the right and expected level, and no reason to raise any concern.
The reason I state this, is because following the Cass Report we are currently hearing Gender Critical MP’s claiming “an alarming rise in the number of kids claiming they are trans” and using this to demand even further removal of trans healthcare. This is all based on the fact that around 5,000 referrals were made to the Gender Identity Development Services (GIDS) whilst they point to the number a decade earlier having been just a few hundred. ~ “We need to seriously question the reason there has been this unexplained explosion!”
So the number of 5,000 is being weaponized and branded as a truly alarming level that needs urgent explanation – why the explosion? Surely a level this high is evidence of a serious problem.
But rather than look only at that isolated headline figure, we need to look at the facts behind the number; is a level of 5,000 kids truly an unrealistic level and a genuine reason for concern?
The starting point needs to establish the national percentage of trans people in the UK.
Out of a total population in England and Wales of 60m, we know from the recent National Census that there are 262,000 adults in England and Wales who declare themselves to be transgender:
262,000 / 60,000,000 % = 0.44% who are transgender adults
Given that it is widely acknowledged that the level of those transgender is 0.5%, the figure of 0.44% is therefore not an unrealistic level to use. Even though those Gender Critical refuse to even acknowledge that trans kids even exist, they cannot seriously believe that trans adults are somehow born at aged 16! Quite clearly, every single trans adult had to have once been a trans child. For that obvious reason, the percentage of trans kids cannot be anything other than the same as the adult level established here of 0.44%.
If we now take the number of kids in the England & Wales, the total population of 5 -16 year olds is 8.3m. But when we consider that figure of 5,000 kids who registered at GIDS, we can clearly see the percentage of kids who are registered at GIDS:
5,000 / 8,300,000 % = 0.006%
So the number of 5,000 registered at GIDS is represents just 0.006% of kids, not ever close to the level of 0.44% that would be the expected number.
And at the correct level of 0.44%, the expected number that you’d expect to be registered with GIDS is 36,520
8,300,000 x 0 .44% = 36,520
So returning to that deliberately over sensationalised level of 5,000, this in reality represents only 14% of trans kids who have registered with GIDS.
So what does this tell us.
It is now abundantly clear that there is nothing like an unrealistic ‘explosion’ of trans kids being rushed to GIIDS, far from it. The level of 5,000 is being used to imply a horrific, unrealistic number, whilst the truth is it’s an incredibly low number compared to the projected total number of 36.500 trans kids.
This in fact gives a far clearer indication that trans kids are not being rushed into a path of medical treatment, but points to a far more careful and cautious approach whereby only 14%, those no doubt experiencing the highest levels of distress and gender dysphoria, are taking this step in childhood.
The remaining 86% of trans kids are not seeking or receiving any kind of treatment until at least adults. How is this being allowed to be portrayed as an epidemic that is out of control?
A simple fact check on the figures has totally destroyed all claims the number of trans kids seeking professional assistance is ‘out of control’. Surely the real question should be trying to establish why 86% of trans kids are NOT seeking help.
If they are choosing to wait then that clearly isn’t an issue, as not all personal journeys of discovery are quick and easy, so time should be taken. But not if their reason is due to a fear of living as their true self, or unaccepting families refusing to support their kids transitioning, or even worse, they may be victims of cruel practices of conversion therapy.
Whist the wrong question is being asked, trans kids continue to suffer, and this shouldn’t be hidden because those Gender Critical are succeeding in misdirecting attention with false claims of ‘explosions’ that simply don’t exist. These calculated claims are still being used to prevent and remove all trans healthcare and life saving treatment that they desperately need.
Those Gender Critical always claim this is about care, compassion and safeguarding for kids, because they want to appear to be acting in their best interest, but in every issue their only motivation is the halting and removal of all trans healthcare and rights.
It is now becoming clear that the findings of the Cass Report are anything but accurate and reliable. Even Cass herself has clarified and corrected several key elements of her own Report. The claim that there has been an unrealistic and unexplainable ‘explosion’ of kids being registered at GIDS has been shouted about by MP’s, but it’s simply not true.
There is ‘no explosion’, there is no unrealistic number. It’s a cruel and heartless misrepresentation of the facts and needs to finally be stopped.
